Forrester Forecasts US Holiday Retail Sales To Reach $1.1 Trillion
US holiday retail sales are expected to grow 5.1% year over year, driven by e-commerce, according to Forrester. This growth may be influenced by higher prices and changing consumer behavior.
Original reporting · forrester.com
Original: “US Holiday Retail Forecast, 2026: E-Commerce Powers Growth”
Read “US Holiday Retail Forecast, 2026: E-Commerce Powers Growth” at Forrester →
How this was written. Voyager Commercial wrote this article with a language model from Forrester’s reporting (model: @cf/meta/llama-3.3-70b-instruct-fp8-fast); it describes that reporting rather than adding to it. The original, linked above, is the full story.
Key points from Forrester’s report
- US holiday retail sales are expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2026, growing 5.1% year over year.
- E-commerce is expected to be the primary driver of holiday retail growth, with sales growing 11.6% year over year.
- Higher-income households are expected to drive spending during the holiday season.
- Inflation is supporting sales growth, but may not reflect stronger consumer demand.
- Retailers must simplify their value proposition and deliver strong digital experiences to succeed during the holiday season.
Forrester has released its US end-of-year holiday season forecast for 2026, predicting total US holiday retail sales to reach $1.1 trillion. This represents a 5.1% year-over-year increase. The forecast highlights several key shifts in holiday demand, shopper behavior, and retailer priorities. These changes may impact how retailers approach the holiday season.
E-commerce is expected to be the primary driver of holiday retail growth, with sales growing 11.6% year over year. This growth rate is significantly higher than the overall retail sales growth rate. As a result, e-commerce is likely to account for a substantial portion of incremental holiday retail sales. Forrester notes that online retail has gained momentum in the second half of 2026.
The way consumers shop online is changing, with product discovery expanding beyond traditional retail websites. Consumers now use various channels to begin their digital shopping journeys, depending on their intentions and the type of product they are looking for. This shift may require retailers to adapt their strategies to remain competitive. Forrester suggests that retailers must be present on multiple platforms to reach consumers.
Higher-income households are expected to drive spending during the holiday season, while lower-income households may face greater pressure due to elevated inflation and slower real income growth. This divergence in spending power may sustain overall retail spending, despite the challenges faced by lower-income households. Retailers may need to tailor their offerings to appeal to higher-income households.
The forecast also notes that inflation is supporting sales growth, as higher prices contribute to increased sales figures. However, this growth may not necessarily reflect stronger consumer demand. Instead, it may be driven by the need for consumers to pay more for the same products. Retailers must be aware of this dynamic and adjust their strategies accordingly.
To succeed during the holiday season, retailers must simplify their value proposition, maintain inventory discipline, and deliver strong digital experiences. By doing so, they can better position themselves to win over consumers and drive sales. Forrester provides guidance on how retailers can prepare for the holiday season in its recently published report.
Forrester clients can access the full US Holiday Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2026 report to learn more about the forecast and its implications for retailers. The report provides detailed insights and advice on how to prepare for the holiday season, including strategies for agentic product discovery, marketing, and fulfillment and delivery.
Questions and answers
What is the expected growth rate of US holiday retail sales in 2026?
The expected growth rate is 5.1% year over year, according to Forrester.
What is driving the growth of e-commerce sales during the holiday season?
E-commerce sales are growing due to online adoption of everyday purchases, faster fulfillment, and improvements in product discovery.
How can retailers succeed during the holiday season?
Retailers can succeed by simplifying their value proposition, maintaining inventory discipline, and delivering strong digital experiences, as noted by Forrester.
